Dubbi sugli effetti del riscaldamento globale sull’economia americana

06 2004

Dubbi sugli effetti del riscaldamento globale sull’economia americana

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Dubbi sugli effetti del riscaldamento globale sull’economia americana

Gli effetti del riscaldamento globale sull’economia americana potrebbero essere sia positivi che negativi, a seconda dell’interpretazione pessimista o ottimista che si vuole dare.

Sono queste le conclusioni, piuttosto equivoche, di un rapporto del Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Il documento, scritto da Dale Jorgenson un economista della Harvard University, sottolinea come il prodotto interno lordo americano sarà lo 0,6 per cento più basso rispetto a quello previsto nel 2100 in caso di cambiamenti climatici contenuti. In caso invece di aumenti di temperatura più estremi la percentuale sarebbe inferiore dell’1,9 per cento. Ma, in alcune condizioni particolari di cambiamento climatico, il prodotto interno lordo americano potrebbe salire dallo 0,7 all’1 per cento.

Il rapporto però non convince molti esperti. Il primo errore è che si basa sulle stime dell’IPCC, il panel internazionale di scienziati che studia i cambiamenti climatici, stime considerate in molti casi esagerate riguardo l’aumento delle temperature. Secondo, non tiene conto degli impatti del riscaldamento globale sulla salute umana.

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